After World War II, Europe still felt it had a message to the world: Overcome the divides of sovereign nation states by creating a supranational, law-based conflict solving governance structure. Now, in its third generation, Europe’s economic success is the very cause for the need of an alternative.
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By ASchrumm – CIGI Communications Dept, CC BY-SA 3.0
A decade ago the world was struggling with the repercussions of the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008 that emerged in the interconnected transatlantic financial system. At this critical moment in time, the G20 was elevated from a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors to the level of heads of states and government. By including a number of rising as well as middle powers non G7 countries the first G20 summit in Washington in November 2008 made clear that current cross-border challenges cannot anymore be dealt with by the old powers of the traditional establishment. At the subsequent summits in London (April 2009) and Pittsburgh (September 2009) the G20 displayed an astonishing level of international cooperation by agreeing on wide-ranging commitments that helped to calm down international financial markets and strengthen the crisis response of international financial institutions. These early initiatives led some optimistic observers to conclude that the system worked.
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https://pixabay.com/de/photos/puzzle-legen-sie-sie-spiel-spa%C3%9F-663279/
At the beginning of a new decade, we suggest to look at the longer-term. Let’s consider the world of multilateralism two decade from now, i.e. well beyond the timeline of the 2030 Agenda. The setting in 2040 is likely to differ substantially from today. Things change, and the job of scenario-building is to imagine different futures without merely projecting existing trends or historic examples. Scenario-Building also provides us with ideas about what we need to do to land in the space we see as most preferable.
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In times of a global rise of right-wing populism, multilateral cooperation is under attack and with that international agreements. Against this backdrop, it might be fruitful to have a closer look at the success factors behind multilateral cooperation and assess whether they could also work vis-à-vis populist governments, especially with regard to the Paris climate negotiations.
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Contributing to heated international debates, the new European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen promised a carbon border tax to adjust for carbon costs at the border. To be sure, border carbon adjustments entail international trade law challenges, feasibility complications as well as fairness concerns. But if carefully designed, such adjustments can contribute to strengthening the ambition of climate action both in the EU and beyond it. More generally, there should be a stronger focus on using international trade as a leverage for climate protection.