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The current debate on the Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement could be very consequential for the World Trade Organization (WTO) although it is not part of the official calendar of next week’s 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi. …
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The world is grappling with a deadly pandemic unleashed on the planet by the Corona Virus (SARS-CoV-2/ HCoV-19). In its wake, the votaries of globalisation who have been espousing the cause of a borderless world of business with seamless flow of international trade, capital and even human resources across the world seem to be stung by a creepy realization whether the paeans sung by them were all worth the effort. More than the social and cultural aspects of globalisation, its economic manifestation in the form of product market integration with concomitant cross-border value chains has been credited with having contributed richly to the growth of the global and national economies. Today, more than half the world has locked down their economic, social, political and cultural activities to arrest the spread of the corona virus that has already infected nearly eight million patients world-wide and claimed over four hundred thousand lives as on the 15 June, 2020.…
The leaders of the G20 will meet on 30 November and 1 December in Buenos Aires for their annual summit. They need to acknowledge that the last two years have been characterized by strong headwinds for the world economy. This time, however, it is not a mixture of poor macroeconomic policies and bad business decisions – as in 2008 when they met in Washington for their first summit – that endangers the well-being of billions of citizens around the globe. This time the threat stems from deliberate political decisions, in particular on trade.
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We are a long way from 2015. That year, the world committed to the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate – promising to end extreme poverty, address corrosive inequality, boost peace and prosperity, and stop climate change.
Now in 2018, we already look back at 2015 with nostalgia. This was the high water mark of multilateralism, brought low by the rise of populism and ‘illiberal democracy’. Suddenly, it seems, we are forced to find ways of rescuing the global rules-based order.
Since the US created the post-World War Two liberal international order and is still the pre-eminent global power notwithstanding the growing Chinese challenge, it is uniquely placed to determine the trade and investment system’s fortunes. The answer to the question posed in the title, therefore, depends fundamentally on the medium-term trajectory of US politics, and the resultant US position in the world. Accordingly, in this blog I put forward my analysis of where the US political system is headed under President Donald J. Trump, how key countries are responding, and the ensuing implications for the global trade and investment system.