Kategorie: Future of Globalisation

Future of Globalisation provides a platform for debates on current world economic issues, global power shifts and the roles of formal and informal global governance institutions and relevant networks.

  • The AU-EU Summit: resetting the continent-to-continent partnership

    The AU-EU Summit: resetting the continent-to-continent partnership

    Photo: Flags of the African Union and the European Union next to each other
    © European Union, 2022

    Finally, the AU-EU Summit took place in Brussels on 17-18 February, after several postponements and a good four years since the last summit was held in Abidjan. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the summit convened Heads of State of 27 EU Member States and 40 of their African counterparts under the auspices of European Council President Charles Michel and Senegalese President and AU Chair Macky Sall. The summit was intended to bring about a new start of the partnership, originally coined by the EU as a “new alliance”, with the partners finally settling on a “renewed partnership”. The changed global context has meant that this new start took a fundamentally different shape than the “comprehensive strategy with Africa”, which the European Council and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, both identified as political priorities during the pre-pandemic time of 2019.

    Most experts were skeptical about such announcements and expressed their low expectation for this year’s summit. In view of these forecasts and following the earlier postponements, the mere fact of an AU-EU summit actually taking place was considered a success in its own right.

    The partnership between the two regions must be given shape in practice and lives before and after as opposed to during these high-level meetings. Summits should rather be seen as recurrent signposts, as points of evaluation and opportunities to identify new directions and priorities. However, even in this regard, the current record was sobering at times. Strongly divergent positions between European and African representatives with regard to migration, the discussion on intellectual property rights and COVID-19 vaccines, and the allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights feature among the current sources of tension between the partners. The continuing security situation in the Sahel, and especially the breakdown in relations between Mali and France, added to this.

    In view of this overall mixed situation, the recently concluded summit and its final declaration can certainly be seen in a positive light and at least a mixed assessment can be drawn.

    New approaches and concrete deliverables

    As the hosting party of the sixth summit between Europe and Africa, the EU made efforts to innovate both the desired outcome and proceedings of the summit. A break from the past wordy outcome statements, the EU had proposed a lean final declaration that would highlight concrete measures and focuses on investments to be made. There was also a move away from exclusively plenary debates to engaging through parallel thematic roundtables to facilitate an intensive exchange between the African and European heads of state in smaller groups.

    A key figure emerging from the summit is the €150 billion „Africa Investment Package“, which Commission President Von der Leyen announced in Senegal on 10 February. This package is intended to mobilise public and private investment for physical and soft infrastructure as part of the currently much-discussed „Global Gateway“ EU investment programme. Already during the closing press conference, observers doubted the promised investments and the associated leverage effects, not least with reference to previous investment packages whose effects and results have not been adequately monitored and evaluated to date. Keeping this promise will be crucial to refute earlier criticisms that previous AU-EU summits have mainly resulted in unfulfilled promises.

    In addition to concrete (financial) commitments, the summit also serves to define, adapt and possibly adjust the relations between two historically and economically closely linked partners with intense cultural exchanges. In this context, it is particularly important to consider the demand for an equal partnership and to bring about a common understanding of this equality. Such calls were clearly and repeatedly heard both during the opening statements of the summit and in numerous individual statements.

    From fragmentation to strategic focus

    Although there seems to be broad agreement on the notion of equal partnership on both sides of the Mediterranean, it remains a distant aim in practice. One reason for this are the various overlapping frameworks and arrangements that the EU and its member states have established for cooperation with Africa, as a result of history, the EU’s own development and the path dependencies created in the process. Europe’s cooperation with sub-Saharan Africa has been shaped under the post-colonial institutional framework with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states, while cooperation with North Africa is mainly carried out on a bilateral basis in the form of separate association agreements.

    Moreover, over the years, the EU has introduced trade agreements with individual and groups of African states, as well as strategic partnerships with larger African states such as Nigeria and South Africa, in addition to various regional strategies. Individual EU member states, including Germany, pursue their own bilateral strategies and initiatives in cooperation with Africa. This fragmented institutional framework is one factor that stands in the way of a coherent European policy towards Africa. The recent summit made it clear that there is a will for renewal. However, declarations of intent alone are not enough to calibrate the foundation of European-African relations. This requires three more fundamental changes to established practices.

    First, one must be aware of the limitations of a partnership between two regional cooperation projects. Unlike powerful nation states that compete with Europe in cooperating with Africa, the EU is not able to provide new funds and initiatives in a short-term and flexible manner, as it is bound by its own financial rules and the long-term budget set by member states and the European Parliament.

    Secondly, the EU should ensure coherence in its numerous engagements in Africa. While calling for an equal partnership, the EU was the main driver between migration and investment-oriented development cooperation initiatives proposed in 2015 and 2016. Although the EU supports Africa’s emerging continental free trade area, it continues to engage in talks with regional groups of states to deepen existing trade agreements. The EU’s erstwhile support for the African Peace Facility has now been transformed into a European Peace Facility that gives African states less direct say.

    Third and last, the EU and Africa should try to be as explicit as possible about the areas in which they want to cooperate. Long lists of commitments and insufficiently specified measures are often a guarantee for unnecessary disappointment. A greater focus on systematically monitoring and reviewing progress made would be a step in the right direction. Such continuous monitoring should be transparent so that the next summit may celebrate the benefits of cooperation, as opposed to calling for another “reset” of the partnership.

  • Transnational networks as relational governance infrastructure

    Photo: Highways in Riga by night
    Photo by Aleksejs Bergmanis on Pixabay

    The resource use of our economies currently exceeds the planetary limits. Our way of life requires profound changes to become sustainable. Governing transformation towards sustainability is an orchestration of a multitude of actors and goes beyond top-down state regulations and bottom-up grassroots initiatives. The required transformation touches various types and levels of interactions – from indigenous communities resisting wind energy projects in Oaxaca (Mexico) to youth groups in Copenhagen mobilizing street protests to spark world leaders into action on climate change, from German courts ordering politicians to come up with more ambitious climate protection legislation to European legislation bodies introducing due diligence and sustainable supply chain laws affecting developing countries. The success of transformation towards sustainability depends on how these interactions are facilitated or orchestrated.

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  • The German G7 Presidency: Dare to make progress on health, sustainability, and trade

    The German G7 Presidency: Dare to make progress on health, sustainability, and trade

    Photo: Schloss Elmau, the G7 Summit 2022 will take place here

    The G7 presidency is an important opportunity for the new German government to globally advance its policy goals on a broad range of issues. It is also the first international litmus test for the new coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Alliance 90/The Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). There is no shortage of topics that the G7 need to tackle under German leadership: The new Omicron variant has put health high on the agenda again, coupled with the issue of economic recovery. Another priority for Germany has long been climate change. The Greens are now part of the governing coalition, and they will invest a lot of political capital to achieve meaningful outcomes . Another major discussion will be on the way of how to deal with authoritarian and non-market economies such as China. Particularly the Greens want to connect economic issues more closely with human rights and values. The three “Cs” – Covid, Climate, China – will thus continue to dominate the G7 agenda, with further topics being infrastructure, digitalization, and supply chain security.

    After the successful G7 summit in Elmau (2015), the new German government has picked the same location for this years’ summit in June. The riots in Hamburg at the G20 summit in 2017, when Olaf Scholz was mayor of the city, influenced the choice of the more reclusive venue. But this is not the only reason. Chancellor Scholz wants to show that his government stands for continuity. And he also wants to pick up on the success of the Elmau declaration, in which the G7 stressed the importance of keeping global warming below 2°C and agreed to decarbonize the global economy over the course of this century . This was important to help secure the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement later in 2015. In his recent New Year’s Speech, Chancellor Scholz emphasized: “We will use our presidency to make this group of states a pioneer. A pioneer for climate-neutral business and a just world. International cooperation is important. In a world that will soon have ten billion inhabitants, our voice will only be heard if we join forces with many others.” According to the Press and Information Office of the Federal Government, the German government wants to pursue a focused agenda, concentrating on the essentials. This was also reflected in the minimalistic logo of Germany’s G7 presidency.

    Dare more progress in vaccine distribution and phase out of all fossil fuel subsidies

    Seven years after the last G7 presidency, the new German government, which emphasized in its coalition treaty that it wants to “dare more progress”, will want to achieve major breakthroughs in the G7. Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed for his chancellery: “We are not concerned with a policy of the lowest common denominator, but with a policy of great impact. We want to dare to make more progress.”

    What needs to be done and what can realistically be achieved? Managing the Corona pandemic and being better prepared for future health crises is again high on the agenda for all G7 member states. But this needs to be seen as a global issue. The access to vaccines and health care is still very unevenly distributed around the world. Particularly in African countries, the overall vaccination rate is alarmingly low. Limited production capacities for vaccines, insufficient distribution networks, and inadequate testing facilities pose huge problems in most developing countries to effectively fight the pandemic. However, despite the common concern, the issue is far from easy in the G7. Particularly controversial were patent rights for vaccines (TRIPS waiver): While the Merkel government was opposed to the waiver, U.S. President Biden generally supported the idea. Particularly India and South Africa push for this issue at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Greens and also the SPD are sympathetic to their cause; the EU so far has voiced its concern and offered a compromise proposal. The new German government together with the G7 countries need a coherent answer to the waiver as well as a significant increase in vaccine distribution and production capacities to make this summit worthwhile.

    In addition, concrete outcomes on climate change are needed. Otherwise, the credibility of the new German government and the G7 as a group of like-minded countries would be compromised. At the Leaders’ Summit in Cornwall last year, the G7 countries agreed to raise their contributions to honor the pledge of developed countries to provide 100 billion U.S. dollars annually to help poorer countries to cut carbon emissions and cope with global warming. But the Leaders’ Declaration lacked concrete numbers. The G7 also committed to collectively cut CO2 emissions by half by 2030 based on 2010 levels. But the rather vague statements on core elements of the green transition put a question mark behind this ambition. For example, the G7 could not agree on a concrete date for the phase-out of coal power generation. In addition, while the G7 re-affirmed their 2016 commitment to eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, they did not agree on a clear road map. And the phrase “inefficient” leaves a backdoor open for continuous support. The expectations will be high that Germany delivers on all the points above.

    China and the WTO

    As the G7 justifies its existence as a values-based group of democratic market economies, China will feature – directly or indirectly – in all the discussions. This includes topics like human rights, sustainability, technology transfer, and supply shortages. China had been a hot topic already during the UK G7 Presidency. In the Leaders’ declaration, the G7 underlined that they “will continue to consult on collective approaches to challenging non-market policies and practices which undermine the fair and transparent operation of the global economy.” Without doubt, the G7 infrastructure initiative is designed as an answer to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. How these commitments translate into concrete actions, is a question yet to be answered. U.S. President Biden is pushing for a tougher stance against China, connecting trade and supply chains with labor rights and sustainability standards. This has long been a major point for the Green party. Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock strongly supports the initiative of the European Parliament to ban the import of all products, which were produced with forced labor. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, on the other hand, told President Xi for example, that he wants to deepen economic ties with China. It is thus unclear, how confrontational the new German government will be – also in the context of the G7. The G7 will certainly put the new government, and who makes foreign policy (the Chancellery or the Foreign Ministry) to the test.

    One aspect, which is related to China, and where the G7 can and should make a difference, is the reform of the WTO. The multilateral organization guarantees a transparent and rules-based global trading system and is therefore the right venue to deal with market-distortions by China. The new German government promised in its coalition treaty: “We support the strengthening of multilateralism and the further development of the World Trade Organization (WTO), including the renewal of the rules on market-distorting subsidies, the lifting of the blockade on the dispute settlement mechanism and an alignment with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Global Compact.” A new commitment to integrate sustainability rules in the WTO, a work program for the reform of the Appellate Body, as well as a commitment to a new initiative on tariff-free trade in medical products could make a huge difference. It could pave the way for reform commitments at the G20 and give the WTO reform a much-needed new impetus.

    A Thorny Road ahead

    The G7 is a great chance for the new German government to prove itself and “dare more progress”. But the challenges are also great. And they could be even greater if the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine escalates further, which could easily derail the agenda. Given the multitude of global crises the G7 is facing, it remains to be seen if the agenda can really be as minimalistic as the new G7 logo. And it will take some considerable efforts to forge compromises in critical areas. In the end, the G7 will need to focus on the issues where it can have an impact in order to advance global governance. As such, it needs to work closely together with other governance fora like the G20.

  • Consolidating Efforts to Recover Stronger: Indonesia’s G20 Presidency in 2022

    Image: City of Jakarta, by Afif Kusuma on Pixabay
    Image: City of Jakarta, by Afif Kusuma on Pixabay

    “This is, above all, a human crisis that calls for solidarity…. that demands coordinated, decisive, and innovative policy action from the world’s leading economies”. This is an excerpt from António Guterres‘ statement on March 19, 2020, in which the Secretary-General of the United Nations called for innovative, appropriate and coordinated action from all world leaders to tackle the new Covid-19 pandemic. But after more than a year and a half , international coordination and cooperation is still lacking in handling this multidimensional crisis.

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  • 60 years of German development cooperation – where to go from here?

    Image: Sunrise with grass in the morning dew
    By schuetz-mediendesign on Pixabay

    International cooperation for sustainable development is crucial for securing life in dignity for current and future generations. In a globalized world like ours, without such cooperation, it is impossible to strengthen individual and societal freedoms for flourishing, to curb climate change and biodiversity loss, reduce inequalities in income and wealth, end armed conflicts and avoid outbursts of violence, strengthen the rule of law and accountable and effective public institutions, and shape digitalisation.

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