Politics and Sustainable Futures: Launch of new project “PoliClim”

Cooperation project addresses a research gap by integrating political factors into climate scenarios.

How realistic are global climate scenarios if they only partially account for political factors such as institutional capacity and instability? The latest IPCC report emphasizes that political feasibility represents one of the greatest uncertainties in current scenario research. Starting January 1, 2026, the new cooperation project “PoliClim” addresses this critical research gap.

Long-term scenarios are essential for developing robust strategies against climate change. Current quantitative models, known as Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), focus predominantly on techno-economic factors. To date, the political dimension has played only a minor role in quantitative modeling. However, accounting for political factors is essential to realistically assess the implementability of necessary transformation measures.

The DFG-funded cooperation project Political Futures in Climate Scenarios (PoliClim) between the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) addresses this challenge. Over the next three years, the interdisciplinary research team will work on linking political projections with PIK’s REMIND model. This will allow researchers to explore how political institutions act as either “enablers” or “barriers” to the sustainability transformation.

The project is led by Julia Leininger (IDOS) and Elmar Kriegler (PIK). Christopher Wingens is a member of the IDOS project team, having previously collaborated with Julia Leininger on modeling future political developments that feed into ongoing climate and sustainability scenario research.