MGG Expert Dialogue „The End of the International Order as We know it?”

How are the decisions of the second US administration under Donald Trump being perceived and discussed in different countries? What immediate and long-term reactions are governments preparing? Where (and for whom) are there opportunities for new fields and formats of international cooperation?

In the MGG expert dialogue on 8 May, representatives of scientific institutions from all MGG partner countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa) and Germany offered insights into the diversity of perspectives on the current changes in the international order. The virtual panel comprised Dr André de Mello e Souza, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brazil, Dr Jiahan Cao, Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS), China, Dr Santana Khanikar, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), India, Dr Yose Rizal Damuri Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia, Dr Carlos Domínguez, Instituto Mora, Mexico and Prof. Anna-Katharina Hornidge, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

The dialogue showed that the tariffs imposed and threatened by US President Trump and the associated uncertainties had an impact in all of the countries considered, albeit in different ways: While around 80% of Mexican exports go to the US, in Indonesia only certain sectors are strongly affected, which are exporting up to 50% of their products to the US. Economists in Brazil are also seeing some positive effects from the reorganisation of the flow of goods. In parallel to the temporary suspension of increased tariffs for most countries, tariffs on Chinese imports have been increased to 145%.

In addition to the potential shifts in global trade, the Trump administration’s interference in domestic affairs, including in the areas of human rights and freedom of expression, particularly in the case of South Africa, and the impact of the suspension of numerous US-funded programmes were discussed. These range from a significant loss of jobs in the healthcare sector in South Africa to the termination of support for LGBTQI rights initiatives in India.

The focus on regional and inter-regional cooperation as well as various levels of countermeasures were emphasised for dealing with the decisions of the US administration as well as the change in tone and the questioning of multilateral institutions.