The fall of the Assad dictatorship and the collapse of the state have left Syria at a critical Juncture. The disintegration of the army and security forces marks the end of an era and presents an opportunity to dismantle the old exclusionary system. This moment of chance for change comes with risks, as the country faces the possibility of another authoritarian regime emerging. The challenge is to create a future that balances inclusivity and stability, while avoiding the dangers of path dependence — where Syria reverts to old patterns of governance.
The internal actors – old patterns or new dynamics?
In the absence of a central government, two forces, each with its own governance structure, have filled the power vacuum. Their conflict threatens further violence and complicates efforts to build Syria’s future, while a possible settlement between them could be the key to a more peaceful and inclusive transition. These two forces are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with the Salvation Government, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).
HTS has emerged as a dominant player in Syria, having gained control over large parts of the country, including the capital, Damascus. Originally a branch of al-Qaeda, HTS has sought, albeit cautiously, to Islamize the state and society of Idlib province that was ruled by HTS since 2017. With the disintegration of the Syrian army and security forces of the Assad regime, HTS has started to establish a new military and security apparatus based on its militias, which may result in the Islamization of the Syrian state in core structures. This poses a real risk of moving towards an exclusionary state reminiscent of the previous regime.
At the same time, the SDF controls northern and eastern Syria, a significant part of the country. The SDF has the ability to serves as a counterforce to HTS, though not an equal one. As a secular, Kurdish-led multi-ethnic coalition in northeastern Syria, the SDF contrasts sharply with HTS’ religious agenda. Despite its focus on local issues and opposition from Turkey, the SDF’s secularism makes it a potential supporter in the creation of a more inclusive Syria. Expanding its influence could be crucial in balancing the power dynamics between the competing forces.
Turkey and Israel – strong interests to reckon with
Turkey plays a significant role in the Syrian conflict, particularly after its support of the forces that helped bring down the Assad regime. Turkey’s opposition to the SDF, coupled with its Islamist tendencies, complicates the transition process. Turkey views the SDF as a security threat, which hinders cooperation. Additionally, its Islamist leanings could make it more inclined to support HTS’s vision of an Islamic state. Engaging Turkey diplomatically is critical, addressing its concerns while ensuring that Syria remains secular and inclusive. One potential solution is the promotion of federalism, granting regions autonomy, especially to Kurdish areas, without undermining Turkey’s security interests.
In addition to Turkey, Israel is an important player in Syria’s future. Capitalizing on the regime’s collapse she destroyed Syria’s military capabilities, including weapons, equipment, and research centers. Israel has also eliminated Hezbollah, a major ally of the Syrian regime. Israel’s interest lies in maintaining political stability in Syria and preventing Islamic forces from monopolizing power. However, it remains uncertain whether Israel would coexist with extremist Islamic forces, as it has with Hamas in Gaza. Nevertheless, Israel is likely to support a stable, secular Syria, given the outcomes of past experiences.
The way forward for the EU
In this complex environment, international actors like the EU must proceed cautiously to guide Syria toward an inclusive state without imposing foreign solutions. Key actions for international intervention include:
- Preventing HTS from Islamizing the army and security forces: Engaging the SDF, other secular forces, and former elements of the Syrian army can help build a new military and security apparatus that avoids HTS’s dominance.
- Supporting civil society: Strengthening NGOs, promoting human rights, and encouraging dialogue are essential for fostering a democratic state. Rhetorically the EU’s strong point, it needs to act and deliver on it.
- Promoting federalism and a secular constitution: Allowing regional autonomy while preserving national unity is critical for ensuring inclusivity.
- Involving regional and international actors: Regional powers like Turkey, Israel, and some Arab countries must play an active role in supporting Syria’s transition, balancing security concerns with inclusivity. Ursula von der Leyen’s recent trip to Ankara must also be seen in this light. The EU, however, is not unified (and consequently weak) on Israel.
The road ahead for Syria is undoubtedly challenging, but it presents an opportunity to rebuild on inclusive democratic foundations. Preventing HTS from gaining dominance and strengthening secularism and diversity are crucial to avoiding the mistakes of the past. The international community must play an active role in guiding Syria toward a peaceful, stable future. Through careful management and diplomacy, Syria can turn this crisis into an opportunity for lasting peace and prosperity. It will need strong external support, including from the EU.
