As global, rules-based cooperation is under pressure, Europe needs to adapt to this new reality and build new alliances. IDOS researchers Dr Niels Keijzer and Dr Mark Furness explore key issues around the topic, including how Europe could work with ‘middle powers’ to strengthen global cooperation and governance.
The global political landscape is changing rapidly, with established rules and institutions under increasing pressure. What does this mean for Europe’s role in the world – and where does Europe still have real influence?
We are entering a more multipolar and unpredictable period in which the global balance of power is shifting, but it is not yet clear where and in what form it will settle. The established international order is under pressure, and powerful actors have violated its rules with limited consequences. Europe therefore cannot simply wait for a return to the post-Cold War status quo. At the same time, the basic principle that sovereign actors should interact on the basis of agreed rules remains crucial to the survival of human civilisation.
All the major powers face significant constraints in building a new global balance of power that reflects their preferences. The United States has made serious strategic mistakes, Russia’s economic and military strength is limited, and China is unwilling to act as a reliable and committed political and security partner. Europe also has weaknesses: it cannot force others to do what they do not want to do, and the EU is not a sovereign state, meaning that every major decision and subsequent action requires protracted internal negotiation. But Europe has considerable strengths: a large economy, deep relationships across the world, strong institutions and open societies that attract people. The EU’s influence is therefore unlikely to come mainly from military force, even though it is building its defence capabilities. Europe’s opportunity lies in using its economic and regulatory weight, institutions, partnerships and values.
Europe has many tools at its disposal, from trade and investment to international cooperation and migration partnerships. How could Europe combine these instruments more effectively to build stronger, mutually beneficial partnerships?
Europe could stop treating its external policies as separate instruments and start offering genuine partnership packages. The aim would be to develop a tailored offer that responds to its partners’ own challenges while also addressing shared interests, such as climate change, public health, energy security, labour shortages or managed migration. Depending on the partner country and its priorities, such packages could combine investment and infrastructure finance, access to European markets, technical and scientific expertise, technology, budget support, diplomatic backing and opportunities for people to study, train or work in Europe.
Partners should be involved throughout the planning cycle, from articulating demand to evaluating results, so that cooperation is based on trust and ownership rather than unilateral decisions. Financial cooperation should be complemented by technical assistance that helps public and private actors use resources effectively, manage public funds transparently and implement reforms. Visa and talent partnerships could add a particularly powerful dimension, provided they provide an enabling environment for circular migration. By bringing investment, development cooperation and mobility together, Europe can offer a uniquely attractive model based on mutual interests and mutual benefits.
If Europe wants to work more closely with countries such as Canada, Japan, India, Brazil or South Africa, what should it offer – and what would need to change in Europe itself?
A potential ‘middle power alliance’ would include partners like Canada, Mexico, Japan, India, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. Europe is key because its combined resources could help such an alliance attain critical mass and influence. Cooperation could address both the challenges individual countries face, such as universal health care and education, and problems that can only be addressed collectively, including climate change, water security, public health, food security and biodiversity. It could also advance shared strategic interests such as renewable energy, access to labour, managed migration, and peace and security.
The purpose would be to create benevolent interdependencies and strong alliances that strengthen global governance and resilience against powers that undermine the international order. For this to become credible, Europe needs to change the way it works. The EU and its member states could coordinate their financial, diplomatic and technical capabilities more effectively instead of pursuing fragmented initiatives. In view of their interests and capabilities, they could also move beyond short-term, transactional approaches and invest in long-term relationships and sustainable development. Most importantly, Europe needs to practice what it preaches: its commitment to democracy, human rights, good governance and international law must be visible in its own policies and actions.
Dr Niels Keijzer and Dr Mark Furness explore these issues in their contribution to the IDOS flagship report.
